Ukraine war latest: US warns of 'dramatic' Iranian escalation after 'Tehran's missiles arrive in Russia' (2024)

A bit more from the business and economics conference taking place in northern Italy this morning (see 10.58am post).

Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has promised her unwavering support for Ukraine in its efforts against Russia.

"The choice of supporting Ukraine has been first and foremost a choice of national interest, and it's a choice that won't change," she said.

She also suggested Russian partners in Beijing and New Delhi should help negotiate an end to the conflict.

"I believe China and India have a role to play to resolve the conflict. The only thing that cannot happen is to think that the conflict can be solved by abandoning Ukraine."

She made the comments shortly after meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy for private talks.

Pennsylvania, Arizona and Texas are among American states benefiting most from funding and investment to arm Ukraine, according to the Pentagon.

The US has spent billions - and more than any other partner - on funding Ukraine since Russia's invasion in 2022.

A breakdown of spending released by the government showed Arizona saw $2.02bn of spending and investments related to Ukraine, while Texas had $1.85bn.

Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state in the upcoming presidential election, received the most of any state with $2.52bn.

The Biden administration has been stressing since last year that many of the weapons sent to Kyiv would be replaced through billions worth of new contracts won by US companies that employ American workers.

Despite this, Republicans have been calling for foreign aid to places including Ukraine to stop and for funding to be directed internally before being sent abroad.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in northern Italy today for talks with Georgia Meloni.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian president addressed attendees of the three-day Cernobbio TEHA Forum and pleaded with Western leaders to give him long-range weapons for against airfields inside Russian territory.

"Just to use this weapon, which can work with 100 and 300km. That's all. That's all, no other ideas," he said.

On this second day of the conference, he's set for private talks with the Italian prime minister.

Despite concerns before the election that she would not support Kyiv, Ms Meloni has strongly backed Ukraine and pledged to continue doing so.

Mr Zelenskyy may also meet other world leaders at the the annual tech and business conference on the shores of Lake Como - with French, Saudi Arabian and Hungarian diplomats and leaders among the other attendees.

A short time ago, we reported on US claims that Iran was risking "dramatic escalation" by its alleged transfer of short-range ballistic weapons to the Kremlin (see 8.12am post).

Despite strong ties pre-dating the conflict, Russian-Iranian relations have deepened since the start of the Ukraine war - with Tehran sending thousands of drones to Moscow for use against Kyiv.

But what does Iran get out of this partnership?

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests Tehran benefits both militarily and financially from its dealings with Moscow.

"Iran has sought cash for its ailing economy in return for selling weapons to the Kremlin," it says - amply provided by Moscow given Vladimir Putin has shifted Russian financial systems and legislation towards a war economy.

And - like Russia - Iran has suffered from years of US and allied sanctions, so cash from its ally is gladly received.

Tehran also seeks to procure Russian Su-35 fighter jets, the ISW says.

"The acquisition of Su-35s could enable Iran to more readily and independently project air power, given that the current Iranian air fleet is outdated and poorly maintained," ISW says.

Not only that, but ISW adds "Iranian leaders have separately sought Russian support in upgrading their cyber capabilities and missile and space programs as part of the expanding military collaboration".

One thing the ISW does not comment on, however, is the political angle.

Iran has many, many enemies.

Those range from as nearby as Israel, and as far away as Washington. Some Arab countries, includingSaudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are also united against Tehran.

Allies are fewer and further between - so having one of the size, power and strength of Russia is key for Iran.

This isn't a new partnership - since the fall of the Soviet Union, Moscow and Tehran have enjoyed close ties - but it's undoubtedly accelerated in recent years.

For example in 2007, Iran became the only country in Western Asia to be invited to join the Collective Security Treaty Organisation - the Russian-led answer to NATO.

Relations have deepened further since Russia's diplomatic (and economic) isolation following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 - with Iran's strong military production base offering Moscow thousands of "Shahed" drones.

If reports are accurate, and Russia has now received short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, it underlines just how far this relationship has come.

Russia's defence ministry claims Moscow's troops have claimed the village of Kalynove.

The village lies in the Donetsk region - one of the main focuses of Russia's military efforts in recent months.

Ukraine has not commented on the claims.

Kalynove lies southeast of Pokrovsk, a major Ukrainianlogistics hub threatened by an accelerating Russian advance ineast Ukraine's industrialised Donbas.

At least three people have been killed by Russian shelling in Donetsk, according to regional officials.

"Three people were killed and three wounded as a result of the shelling of Kostyantynivka," Donetsk governor Vadym Filashkin said.

"The Russians shelled the city with artillery, killing three men aged 24 to 69."

Three people received minor injuries, he added.

A high-rise building, an administration building, a shop, a pharmacy, six cars and three power lines were damaged in the attack.

By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent

Polls have opened in regional elections in Russia, which opposition activists say are a farce, after hundreds of anti-war candidates were barred from running.

Ballots are being held in almost every part of the country at various different levels, from local councils to regional governors.

But only a handful of races will feature a candidate from Yabloko, the only political party in Russia that opposes the war in Ukraine.

The party says it put forward around 350 candidates in total but that only 65 were allowed on the ballot after authorities found irregularities with their paperwork.

"Right now, the authorities want deputies at all levels to be as loyal as possible," Maria Chuprina, one of Yabloko's barred candidates, told Sky News.

"Such is the current federal agenda, there shouldn't be anything that reminds us that Russia is in conflict."

Read more from Bennet here.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to press Western officials for permission to use longer-range weapons to strike deeper within Russian territory.

This week saw the first time US-supplied missiles were apparently used by Ukraine on Russian soil.

Despite indications the US and Britain were cutting some of the red tape to allow Kyiv to make use of its varied Western-supplied arsenal, many allies remain hesitant to sanction the use of longer-range weaponry - fearing this would spark escalation.

But what would strikes deeper inside Russia actually achieve - and should the West sanction them?

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has broken down what that could look like: "Long-range strikes against military targets within Russia would degrade Russia's ability to leverage sanctuary space in Russia for offensive operations in Ukraine," it said.

This would place "significant operational pressures on the deployment of Russian air defence, electronic warfare, logistics, command and control, and military support assets".

"Russia, on the contrary, continues to actively expand its ability to maintain deep precision strikes against Ukraine by increasingly procuring ballistic missiles from Iran and North Korea, and continuing to expand its missile production."

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin suggested yesterday that Ukraine has its own domestically produced missiles that could reach Russian soil, but ISW noted most of Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities come from drones, which cannot be used to cause the same level of damage as long-range missiles due to payload limitations.

Ukraine therefore can only use a "limited number" of domestically produced long-range strike systems - and Western-provided HIMARS, which they do have permission to use - to significantly threaten a limited number of Russian military targets within Russia.

"This scarcity is not reflective of all the long-range strike capabilities that Ukraine possesses, and Western decision-making continues to artificially suppress Ukraine's overall long-range strike capability," ISW assessed.

Debris from a downed drone was found next to Ukraine's parliament building after overnight attacks, politicians said in a statement this morning.

The severity of the damage is not yet clear, but there were no casualties.

Ukraine shot down 58 out of 67 Russian-launched drones overnight, the country's air force said.

The building, known as the Verkhovna Rada, is located at the Constitution Square in the Lypky district of Kyiv.

Any Iranian transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia would mark a sharp escalation in the Ukraine war, Washington has said.

"We have been warning of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and are alarmed by these reports," White House national security council spokesman Sean Savett said last night.

"Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia wouldrepresent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia'swar of aggression against Ukraine."

He did not confirm whether the US had verified that any such transfer had taken place - although reporting in the Wall Street Journal yesterday cited senior officials as saying that Iranian missiles had now been delivered to Moscow's forces.

Reports from August suggested that Russia was expecting the imminent delivery of hundreds of Fath-360 close-range ballistic missiles from Tehran - and that Russian military personnel were being trained inside Iran on how to use them.

Iran denies reports

Iran's UN delegation said yesterday: "Iran considers the provision of military assistance to the parties engaged in the conflict - which leads to increased human casualties, destruction of infrastructure, and a distancing from ceasefire negotiations - to be inhumane."

"Thus, not only does Iran abstain from engaging in such actions itself, but it also calls upon other countries to cease the supply of weapons to the sides involved in the conflict."